ࡱ> `!:p!n_J51tXd470wxXMhI~'3lFB\t3;Ah&Yhԙ$%ׅeE$x!DW/50[MN'v2𺫾zޛBppBQTTC.&Pv1-ٖl-ǰRWZZ*Uz ?N^??ux† il{{yWb+Q_&oQJ򰜄g/^-O$H礡ǦR/!/-ŵ#.Fm9!Δ=)]@^W^ [oւ5-hbP;n㖯w~bP<l(0v0^ƛr zYkk$5iQ趒r`kQ/)[K1b +6dl5[d,0yA5Bfhhyyٕ̻$E O=z ?fnTe(S%{Lr}6nK V+P"0`HT- Z,XDD=/s%u XzMTR9M^ U2\QL_YB\ 6(c)Ra6dl5[d,Xj(q c`fΰnΚ5o Sd9hC3EWVw:pz -V(|6 f2FՍ 3)wԍqSkbxx &)j=O4&nBIᡁD!罣_sjwɓ!1 $" XNz z!ņ=?.6],pawVn# i>2܉Ln$wq0-yҜ#ęܯJw5D';'v]Vv&r;e;SϠ(cxUC(?KD/sM^1&sC\9Uverv.Q0g>9MsYn|77{K?^jX`![g5vj!]8.77{AP!XxXMhA~v*ƴ"!IiIA"B1V=(FІPZ$ XzыP/ +AA^=\,qQe*ʛ;yeR- [#Yu>HlZa (,EȪbɺv[l& %&4ܻu 4hGW@}ۤv쳀8:H>ި߃zR_Op܇ͳēdA FGUxSxNb*d }L!r\ӰKk$FMmhor+֫ )0CWDwy( NC|zΔ4@8u- x㩱>枯TUyhXٕnO"`q'~K똱>r_O񁃯Εo^z1=yji,;un)hd!#$^$Wr$2\׌f7D7#MMb+ XFa2U^nsqbbºSwO>&V~b`^g%V@ j؎ FAW+atPYkLJӘb4J:ab:2)Kɔ42ҘhP&UUF/c~nz߹x*lYpw̪}Bb1jXFaWX~jYa"ΠĄưDbBcm*11̾+,O_=~<tFS"~<+imhyL[]/۵Mk Cm=pzh'|%ūp*tF۵ KС=wxGx`TvnY{x3?ˆl7Q^ ذ ca6º8+)lG%|4f,K4ZhFHe)ضvYJ$D]k?+OIj=+ShUǠ&F/&TR@*`xUjo5sOߞ3^Ɖ\>tG~݊ [ĕ`!=Ig_*m$d470w xhuow;cG59꧔Jq7NSDW75/\bQj?~5Uk`G͵ĶҵnEz%s]# ܖvC[ʯ3sK,SڤZtFw'l*s)ڕz1NJzܵs:Nfֲܽ[냩]'z-d| xIU:XkZ`-zj&c_Yo˔{:)>xז^jevX5` XjkZ`-zXJ/sz=dv֥76öa##SS˰˰"-Jֆ†æ¦Ö¶¶vv:`33.XRaQX66k--mmmmuúa䈥53,k566vvŽŽNN.."8SFp [[yեj5kϷ\Wɤ/U~,*'D$C6Il P߰I2tT&%$C]2IU$*֓$rL6IΨ$:admM؈lgl SI2M$$CN6I&$]>I2tZUI2&'Il_{$zO=&zMՋl I|'>6F&$C1${t"{*{*[2Iʑ{*G[#ڑ{܏Mg$K?&&P^&P~Mz7$;Aw$eKl I6I|d1=MZz$C#l ݡyQϷE7H'G}oy>r=PϿNC[|P}?=j3OHR7k|1{mcY^^/?+.U=)5Sɔ)u2%_gOI9,SrJZd?V55V6svKC2gb)5Hߋ57sC6ytޯhk(X"mҝes植Z'yv{U}uG8߾?|'[ąy>C'-N["QGҺE~x ݪu>xQ^U`(W^OƵ~'SVb~4,;.ߪ0[7=%Du4"01Qu(*GD~+ЯJ:E]~0JU~u%uR)Kg/xy͂=ao{ثdByvMK.5Gg&hSmǴ gQᣈQhb_"hK䕰W^:{ų^y{:ֱW^%{v-=G k[b{;iN %y^{yW f5^{Mbo{;^3{b{=P^.{^{eco{ճMdo'{;w%z䅕7,X7j[*6`e^f0{ka8 q do {eW^!{앲{&W8όIiuEU-8ӮUM+:(HIWl7)}}xx$Z0)UGJkbHIDEHIx$$*GJ;bHIFD|'D|-ֈE]Lzgg{/Q"&3e-'гexC< 8bg0;s#u9bg?;Wb8戅9,[Eгmq( =cYZD/;bg{;?D1#rB),G xC\Y鈅CY> pP,tB,"wF;K< 䈅Y. v9bvˡ.ws;K1#L˗X/2`6BWu4;LXr oɹXΒQxG,dgZǢ qY.zLXo΢vX툅, O͎X/w*Y<㈅0,_YpB}vlG,gkgൊXQ$znX΂K9bq;lG,'ogzY0 Y˅iXh r @#/̃Ǽ`#s, Yf~ህƘ,K7^qBc[v5XhLβ3G,4ggyR{!wBcv_h>舅.,O-d:b1S;z/BG,HXNkj#/k~Y_}\u*嘼.̉<&ڠlÃ*vCE#ATE< P~>ZAT4Hd!Z AT'% Ͱ!B8-.P  A$ 2 J!0\nhKU:SŐ W ʹ  W*DU #`\3Uh톊fQ-S Uh톊;Q=?ǡUhj\HQm0Th*?`L^T.Z*#w=Y^WҀq2:QZ#`Č\nΈ2T WfĘo )1f2 tJ kMdȋG˰2ZEp2ZG0fti7yA%,2񝮾 Whe5̆1Nno߾r1.G^i~A+AKo0~NJoC>)?mR] bZ0 +S͹>;8\? [1kUhU*fnٜeiչ-Oz%8oע+{6עci?}'rX ҵ^וpUmg6q}8?Bf% M(K / 0DTimes New RomanI0Wo 0DTahomaew RomanI0Wo 0 " DWingdingsRomanI0Wo 0  a.  @n?" dd@  @@`` XPB,  /$  !#  %  "  % ,o2$p!n_J51tB/2$[g5vj!]8.77B/2$} CrDhҲ{E/2$Ig_*m$E /$/2$w2ʌ@Gi / 0e0e A@A5%8c8c     ?1d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'p@A)BCD|E?@87uʚ;2Nʚ;g43d3d0@ppp@ <4!d!d 0LI<4dddd 0LI ? %O ={C<0 A State of Decline ? : Putting Housing Back on the Agenda in South Australia. Presentation at the National Housing Conference, Adelaide,November 2003 David Kilner (c) David Kilner 2003DN H =1LA State of Decline ? : Putting Housing back on the agenda in South AustraliaMM The ghosts of housing policy past Messages for today ? Are we bogged down in a welfare argument when we need a broader social & economic framework as well as welfare solutions ?Z/#2When have Housing Programs been supported in SA ? Housing Programs attract strongest public & political support when they are couched as broad-based : Consumer or social programs, Industry/economic programs or Reward programs But less so as focused welfare programs:eN)eN)0$Examples from 1910 onwards$nTo fight housing crises eg high rents; finance issues; low standards; health issues As a bulwark against socialism As a bulwark against capitalism To build citizenship, good workers, family life, thrift & to uplift society To reward service eg War Service Homes To promote social stability & contentment To enhance the home as the economic centre of consumerism oZo1%Plus, from 1940 onwards$Response to market failure (eg Depression) Response to crisis eg World Wars Economic management and growth Industrial development & urbanisation Develop mature private markets eg land, finance Contain private sector prices through public sector competition The Current Problem Until the early 1990 s housing policy had a high profile in SA Housing investment was high Including both public housing and home ownership Housing needs were increasingly being met,both general and special Since then public investment has declined dramatically Z$The Background to Housing Investment%%$I will show you three charts - All dwelling approvals in SA from 1946 to 2003 per 1000 mean population Government share in dwelling completions from 1956 to 2003 Number of purchasing households 1911-2001&3'< Dwelling Approvals per 1000 Mean Population SA 1946 - 2003==' 4(Govt Share of New Dwellings'  6*VNumber of purchasing households  Adelaide ,,  Comment^SA s approval rate similar to Australia's except after 1993 But government contribution up to 1990 about twice national level Including home ownership, government funded nearly 50% of new dwellings in SA 1946  1980 Net State indebtedness averaged about 20% of SDP during this period Cf 6% now & falling0Z0$Factors Driving Post-War Strategies %#$pInitial catch-up effects of Depression & War Growth philosophy  grow population; grow jobs; grow investment Opportunity eg plentiful land, easy foreign investment, low interest rates Public Housing seen as productive social & economic asset not a cost; ditto home ownership Premier Playford s Economic Strategy 9Z95)Playford's Economic Strategy $.Cheap land, labour, credit & infrastructure Low cost workers housing (rental & purchase) Pursue foreign/national investment Actively manage land markets Sustain economic growth Foster urbanisation Link investment, employment & urban development Pursue active immigration policyZ Effects #1Strong economic growth Improved profitability for investors  because of low cost structure Improved equity of social outcomes Strong population growth A supportive, confident & optimistic population -!Population Growth $ Effects #2Public housing stock = 12% of total by 1991 Investment became unsustainable as client base changed towards welfare population in 1970 s & 1980 s But did we go too far too fast in 1980 s ?  50% increase in public housing stock in ten yearsMessages'Housing Programs attract better public & political support when they are couched as broad-based consumer/social, economic/industry or reward programs not welfare programs Population growth, jobs and housing investment interact and mutually support each other Coat-tails effect for welfare needs(( Outcomes of previous policy Large stock of social housing to meet diversity of housing need Low after-housing poverty rates  best pre/post drop in Australia Debt was affordable if managed properly and clientele diversified But this didn t happen = debt crisis+How the gains were lost #1Economy changed Special needs grew Public housing became welfare housing Commonwealth loan finance became grants Financing system became unsustainable."How the gains were lost #2 Adaptation to these new realities & possibilities was not made Result - credibility and social appeal were lost Debt reduction became the imperative. Not to forget the broader context of State Bank, economic rationalism, globalisation etc End of Cold War threats   Some recent trends #1Loss of Govt housing banks eg Savings Bank, State Bank Loss of state developers eg SAULT, SAHT Loss of co-operative financial institutions Decline of public housing The State Bank & the pushbike Slow decline of housing success ? -(QAdelaide Households Not in Home Ownership or Public Housing (% of all households)RR !Some trends #2.Adelaide s urban growth boundary = urban consolidation ++ Loss of capital funding eg CSHA We are currently privatising scarce public land Welfare housing is a downward spiral losing political and public support Isolating  welfare housing from the mainstream (which is suicide) Recent & Current Policies>Are they counter-productive overall ? Recessionary  housing boom is illusion Budgetary retrenchment  but is cost cutting self defeating ? Debt reduction  at the cost of infrastructure Deflationary overall  undermine economic growth But ironically helping to inflate housing markets Z   Some Evidence<Economic growth in SA 1992-2002 only half of what needed to maintain standard of living = growing poverty and housing stress Shrinking population share Shrinking share of Australia s GDP Key indicators  unemployment; population flows; tourism; overseas students; poor employment growth)Bring back the Ghosts ?Is there a case for a new broad-based consumer, industry or reward program ? Consumer/social  possibly Industry  unlikely Reward  no(N;N; :.A Consumer/Social ProgramReasons for a consumer/social program : Because the gains of the past can be lost The force of events will demand a solution b(+,( + ,"A New Housing Crisis by 2010? (#1)##$ Falling home ownership ? Falling social housing stock Growing private rental market & rising rents Shrinking land supply & rising cost General inflation of house prices and rents Excessive height, density and redevelopment of older areas due to urban growth boundary  2& A New Housing Crisis by 2010? #2!!$Steeper urban price gradient More social segregation Intergenerational disparities & conflict Outcome - The ghost of market failure reappears  A New Consumer/Social Program $Mix of land, home ownership and rental strategies Aim should be anti-inflationary, pressure prices, improve affordability & access Sustain viability of social housing Maintain SA s competitive edgeA New Industry Program ?Would a mass social housing program attract investment to SA through providing affordable housing to new workers and new industries ? If so, which industries, which workers ? Which investors ? A new working class  both blue & white collar We need adequate social & physical infrastructure & affordable housing, to help compete with others WZW9-New Opportunities #1Could we envisage a future where a low cost Western country can again compete with Asia for industry  will the wheel turn ? Identify and seize new opportunities Are we too risk-adverse in South Australia now ?7,New Opportunities #2More US investment flows to developed world than developing world (1995 figs) Wage gaps are closing rapidly in some parts of developing world = less comparative advantage for them Investment dollars are leaving some mature Asian economies as wages rise China s rapid growth offers more than it threatens There is scope in regional production chains^Z^8+ Challenges #1These suggestions are against current wisdom which says - reduce State debt to attract investment via a better credit rating But historically & comparatively there is no evidence this works What works is to look like a going concern with growth potential Z& Challenges #28How much needs-based housing can we afford ? We have to get the numbers right  financial viability is the key But there is more than one road to viability 'A Possible Housing ModelNeed to create right institutions or adapt Mixed role in home ownership & rental Rental for all comers - social mix as funds allow Draw in new capital but shandy loans & grants eg private; CSHA;CRA; State Cross-subsidisation Capture public land Government - more enabler than doerZ"OutcomesMore affordable housing for whole community Public support - if it results in more jobs, higher standard of living, better housing outcomes Chance to provide more welfare outcomes within general housing policy * Conclusions OLook beyond the welfare framework Play a mainstream role Think about the general situation and where we are going in the housing market in next 10 years Think about broader economic development issues & opportunities Respond to likely community needs & build broad public support and alliances Coat-tail welfare needs to the general PZP;/ PERSUASIONWho do we have to persuade ?/  ` 33PP` 3333` ___MMM` 13` 333fpKNāvI` j@v۩ῑ΂H` Q_{>?" dd@,?n<d@ `7 `2@`7``2 n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>> 0     j (     T& @    NHI"P @    <KI"p @    C xPI?d?"bUv @   6,RI "` I T Click to edit Master title style! !$  0TI "  I RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     S  60ZI "@  I @ B  s *޽h ? 3333  Blends   #  @ (  T +  "+bb P@ # "Dwoh  s *"PP  Bd" P@bb P 0  # "Nyh  s *"P    Bd"P 0 z   <" a*h   s *"    f?d?"+)   < ?"pP  T Click to edit Master title style! !   0 " `    W#Click to edit Master subtitle style$ $  6 "`p   `*  6 "`p   b*  6D "`  b*B  s *޽h ? 3333 0 P:(    0 @7   \*   0@ z 7  ^* d  c $ ?Jq    0  ;y  RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     S  6 @K   \*   6 z K  ^* H  09g彖 ? ̙33P  `\(  \ \ 00 @7   \*  \ 0 z 7  ^*  \ 6׭ @K   \*  \ 6 z K  ^* H \ 09g彖 ? ̙33 ? 0$(  r  S 4I `  I r  S 8   I H  0޽h ? 3333  p$(  r  S < `   r  S T    H  0޽h ? 3333(  P(  r  S   `     S    <$ 0  H  0޽h ? 3333( ? P(  r  S T p     S   <$ 0  H  0޽h ? 3333(  P(  r  S ) `     S *  <$ 0  H  0޽h ? 3333  *(  x  c $(@ `   r  S @    H  0޽h ? 3333  *(  x  c $R `   r  S TS    H  0޽h ? 3333  ~v(  r  S ] `   \   0e0eA @ 5%8c8c     ? @A)BCD|E?  H  0޽h ? 3333  ~v(  r  S b `   \   0e0eA @ 5%8c8c     ? @A)BCD|E?  H  0޽h ? 3333 ? ~v(  r  S Z `   \   0e0eA @ 5%8c8c     ? @A)BCD|E?  H  0޽h ? 3333   *(   x  c $L\ `   r  S      H  0޽h ? 3333   ,*(  ,x , c $6 `   r , S j    H , 0޽h ? 3333  0$(  r  S \ `   r  S t 0  H  0޽h ? 3333  @p*(  px p c $Ty `   r p S z    H p 0޽h ? 3333  ~vP(  r  S  `   \   0e0eA @ 5%8c8c     ? @A)BCD|E?  H  0޽h ? 3333  `*(  x  c $­ `   r  S í    H  0޽h ? 3333   4*(  4x 4 c $X) `   r 4 S *    H 4 0޽h ? 3333  pH*(  Hx H c $| `   r H S z    H H 0޽h ? 3333  $(  r  S  `   r  S T    H  0޽h ? 3333  $(  r  S  `   r  S @    H  0޽h ? 3333  x*(  xx x c $ `   r x S T    H x 0޽h ? 3333  (  ~  s * `   \   0e0eA @ 5%8c8c     ? @A)BCD|E?  H  0޽h ? 3333 ? *(  x  c $\9 `   r  S 9    H  0޽h ? 3333  <*(  <x < c $`~ `   r < S     H < 0޽h ? 3333  D*(  Dx D c $E `   r D S Y    H D 0޽h ? 3333  $(  r  S L `   r  S N    H  0޽h ? 3333  $(  r  S Z `   r  S [    H  0޽h ? 3333  d*(  dx d c $i `   r d S i    H d 0޽h ? 3333   $(  r  S \o `   r  S p    H  0޽h ? 3333  0*(  x  c $`u `   r  S v    H  0޽h ? 3333 ? @8*(  8x 8 c $ `   r 8 S P  ``  H 8 0޽h ? 3333  P$(  r  S b `   r  S j    H  0޽h ? 3333  `6(  ~  s *T `   x  c $ P0  H  0޽h ? 3333  p$(  r  S I `  I r  S I   I H  0޽h ? 3333  *(  x  c $| `  I r  S 8    H  0޽h ? 3333  *(  x  c $| `   r  S      H  0޽h ? 3333  *(  x  c $I `  I r  S I   I H  0޽h ? 3333  $(  r  S ?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvxyz{|}~Root EntrydO)PicturesCurrent UserSummaryInformation(w%PowerPoint Document(gDocumentSummaryInformation8